[Emperor Smeat]

The Sheets (Observer Newsletter Edition):

The most unique WrestleMania in history airs over two nights in front of no fans at the WWE Performance Center, a show that was actually taped on 3/25 and 3/26. At press time, which matches are on what show have not been determined and while Becky Lynch vs. Shayna Baszler and Kevin Owens vs. Seth Rollins have had interviews talking about being on the first night, we’re told after everything was to be edited, all the decisions would be made. I’m not sure what the purpose of doing the show now is. They are giving up $15 million to $17 million when it comes to ticket sales and merchandise sales. Because of the time frame, the increase in network subscriptions, the biggest value of the show, won’t be there at anywhere near the level of past years. So they are giving up the WrestleMania bump which means year-over-year network numbers will be even worse than projected ... Unless it’s greed for showing power over outside influences, because greed usually associates with money and obviously from a strict money standpoint, this was the worst decision possible. The theory that with less competition and no sports that more people will watch it is probably not the case, because wrestling viewing has been down, not up, even with more people home. But that idea would only work if it was a free show, and not a paid show. From a fan enjoyment standpoint it was a bad decision as well. About the only explanation for it was stubbornness and an attempt to prove that they can overcome the real world and tell some stories on future documentaries on how bold they were and how they put smiles on faces when the world needed to be cheered up.

There were a few casualties, including one of the two main events. Roman Reigns pulled out of the show under unique circumstances ... Since people have asked about Brock Lesnar, who has had multiple issues with Diverticulitis, doctors have told us that diverticulitis (which Vince McMahon has also had) in the past would not pose any more significant risk than anything else. McMahon is a risk because of his age. Reigns came to Orlando for his match with Bill Goldberg for the Universal title. The details are sketchy, but it was told to us that The Miz sowed up sick, and ended up being flagged from performing. The Usos, who were to face him, and Reigns talked about it and whether they talked him into it, or he came to the conclusion on his own, he flagged himself. And the company also let him take the heat for it, rather than taking the responsibility publicly, even if they didn’t actually make the call. And they continued to advertise him anyway. Both Smackdown and Raw, and the WWE web site, continued to push Goldberg vs. Reigns. This is after Goldberg vs. Braun Strowman was already taped ... The story broke after the second day of WrestleMania tapings were completed and Reigns confirmed it three days later. He clearly wasn’t happy, as it wasn’t so much an announcement he had missed the show as much as being upset at the criticism for pulling himself from the show ... And while taking a temperature and not allowing people in the building who have any signs of a cold or flu is certainly what you have to do and everyone is doing it, there are asymptomatic carriers and the crew was not tested for the virus itself, because those tests aren’t easy to come by and the results don’t come back immediately anyway. Bryan did do the show. His wife, Brianna, on her podcast, had mixed emotions. As a performer, she knows the significance of WrestleMania. As a wife, she knows her husband’s past history

Nobody in WWE has tested positive for coronavirus.

Andrade suffered what was called a not that serious rib injury, but serious enough that he couldn’t do WrestleMania, while performing in a tag team match on 3/23. He was promoted throughout the show on 3/30 as being in a six-man tag match, and then as the match stared, Zelina Vega said he had a serious rib injury and announced Austin Theory as his replacement. Theory is also his replacement in the tag title match at WrestleMania. Right now it is unclear whether Theory will remain on the stable. The usual rule is that people on television on NXT can’t be brought up on a whim, but this situation was such that all those rules are thrown out. Theory was picked by Paul Heyman to be the replacement.

WWE has made two surprising deals when it comes to the distribution of WrestleMania, which will air as a PPV for the first time on both FoxSports.com, FOX NOW and Fite.TV ... In WWE promotion, while they do mention the WWE Network, they no longer mention WrestleMania being free for new subscribers, which had been a key selling point in past years. They also pushed cable and satellite PPV, which they had previously almost mocked viewers for buying, and hadn’t pushed in years ... The fact that FITE is part of the deal indicates that this is more WWE opening the show up to others as opposed to FOX buying an exclusive, since the show also remains on regular PPV. The other key is how many people would buy the shows from FOX or FITE for streaming at these prices when you can stream from the WWE Network for $9.99 per month and get both shows at the price ... The number would be weak to begin with, and much weaker this coming week. To me, all this does is tell the people they are trying to sell streaming rights to that the value of those rights is far weaker than they would perceive or have any data on if they just didn’t do it this week. WrestleMania last year did about 65,000 buys on U.S. PPV through television, which would likely be in places without high-speed Internet, or some people who are well off enough that they’d rather spend more money to watch on television and push a button than learn how to hook the network up to their television ... This could also be a test market for either data to sell the PPV package to a streaming service, but the low numbers this is sure to get at those prices for streaming isn’t going to help any value arguments. One would think, unless some people are so stupid as to not realize they can get the same thing streaming for less money, that the FOX numbers here will be disappointing, and not help WWE when it comes to negotiations for next year. Even if, by chance, they wouldn’t be as bad as logic would say under normal circumstances, the current economy makes this the worst week to try this out. But this also could be step one in next year’s Mania being only PPV, both television and streaming, and no longer on the network, and establishing this as the new value price point for the biggest show of the year. This also could be another explanation of the departure of Michelle Wilson and George Barrios, who were big proponents of taking all PPVs out of that marketplace and making them part of the network package. From a business standpoint, that has been effective for the smaller shows, but has greatly hurt the amount of revenue generated each year by WrestleMania. This also would seem to indicate an ESPN+ deal isn’t close. With the huge money issues ESPN and Disney have suddenly faced, this would appear to be the worst time possible to ink a new big money sports deal. Industry sources have said that Peacock already turned down the deal with the idea they want to go with higher prestige programming as their cornerstone ... The flooding the market with television programming is part of a new philosophy. Vince is of the opinion that WrestleMania will sell more PPVs this year based on more companies distributing the event. Earlier this year, FOX itself wanted the WrestleMania kickoff show and McMahon turned it down. Then the world changed, as did his decision making. After the ratings came in for WrestleMania 30 on ESPN, the feeling was that they had reached a new group of eyeballs they had never reached before. The company’s goals for 2020 were to increase its reach among the sports fans. From there, it’s been all about new eyeballs watching the product this week in as many places as possible. The problem is the obvious overexposure issues of providing so much programming. For one week leading to WrestleMania, this is not a bad thing. To continue after WrestleMania will speed the declines of Raw and Smackdown, which are the moneymakers.

The 3/30 Raw go-home show for WrestleMania did 1,924,000 viewers and 757,000 in 18-49, the lowest in modern history for a live show, but that’s just the reality of the situation. It was the third lowest number in show history, beating only a taped show on 12/23 that did 1,835,000 and a taped show on Christmas Eve of 2018 that did 1,775,000. The third hour, which did 1,646,000 viewers, was the lowest hour in modern Raw history, breaking the mark set by hour three of the 12/23 show that did 1,686,000 viewers. The 23.0 percent first-to-third hour drop was the fifth largest in history ... As compared to the same week last year, the show was down 27.4 percent overall and 37.2 percent in 18-49 ... The key things is that the current format is running its course when it comes to keeping viewers, but this is just a situation of the times we are in. The high point of the show was the first segment with the Undertaker interview that did 2,233,000 viewers. The low point was the main event with the Paul Heyman & Brock Lesnar interview at 1,574,000 viewers and a 0.9 rating, the lowest quarter rating in history. And considering Heyman & Lesnar are usually the high point of the show, that tells you how unavoidable this is

Ric Flair was interviewed by Mark Henry and talked about an idea of a movie being made on his life, saying he’s talked to Dwayne Johnson, Hiram Garcia and Dany Garcia of Seven Bucks Entertainment and WWE about it

Brandon Thurston did research on the coronavirus and its affect on WWE. Because WWE is so reliant on fixed revenue from television, his estimates were that in a normal year this year, WWE would have taken in $1.218 billion and had $163 million in operating income. He said that if house shows are canceled for the rest of the year, that he projects company revenue as $927 million and operating income at $121 million. The non-television house shows lose money, so them being canceled doesn’t hurt profitability, but lack of PPV shows does. In addition the reality shows may not be able to go into production for new seasons for a while. It’s also notable that Saudi Arabia is not allowing live events right now and as long as that continues, WWE won’t be running that big money show there either. WWE is under contract for two shows, but I wouldn’t even want to speculate how that works given how late WWE gets paid for shows they’ve already done

New Japan Pro Wrestling canceled five more dates, house shows from 4/12 to 4/18 and at this point the first event back on the schedule is 4/19 at Korakuen Hall. The fact that no lineups have been announced for any show tells you they aren’t counting on anything happening. A number of promotions in Japan are still running. Ice Ribbon’s 3/29 show scheduled for Osaka was canceled and they ran an empty arena show at the dojo in Saitama. 2AW ran before less than 100 fans. Stardom’s 3/28 show in Shizuoka ended up being canceled the night before and some of the talent, including Hana Kimura, publicly questioned traveling and doing the show. They’re next show scheduled is 4/11 in Yokohama. Big Japan, Sendai Girls and Basara all ran this weekend. Korakuen Hall is still open for shows, but just not allowing spectators ... Pure J, Marvelous and Tokyo Joshi Pro also canceled weekend shows. There is definite fear in Japan of going into a full lockdown, which would force cancellations of all shows, as while they are only small shows, Japan is the one place left where shows happen almost every day in front of fans. For foreign talent, the Japanese government announced on 4/2 that any foreigner who leaves Japan starting on 4/3 will not be able to return any time soon ... This would go the same for foreign wrestles who live in Japan, although many of them are not in Japan now since there is no work there.

The hammer hit hard with drops by both AEW and NXT for empty arena shows on 4/1. AEW, after two strong weeks of numbers, fell to 685,000 viewers and a 0.25 in 18-49. They went from last week being the No. 2 non-news show on cable for the day in 18-49, to No. 8, trailing shows on MTV, Good Network, VH-1, Lifetime, TLC and TBS. The decline was 16.4 percent in ratings an 26.5 percent in 18-49. The decline is likely based on what happened the previous week, whether it’s life circumstances, the atmosphere last week or the silliness of the final segment. Whatever it is, the people arguing the final segment was a positive don’t have a good argument this week. NXT dropped less, doing a 590,000 viewers and a 0.15 in 18-49, a drop of 4.7 percent overall and 25.0 percent in 18-49. Next week is a week that NXT should win if ever, with two Takeover matches including Tommaso Ciampa vs. Johnny Gargano in what is billed as the final match of their feud, and the match that was to be the biggest NXT match of the year on its biggest Takeover of the year. AEW fell to No. 37 in 18-49 and NXT was No. 74.

For 3/25, AEW did 1.42 viewers per home, once again the highest of any pro wrestling show ... In the quarters, AEW opened with 908,000 viewers and 467,000 in 18-49 for Cody vs. Jimmy Havoc. NXT opened with 750,000 viewers and 285,000 in 18-49 for Austin Theory vs. Tyler Breeze. In the second quarter, AEW lost 46,000 viewers but gained 9,000 in 18-49 for a Jake Roberts promo, a Cody promo, a Darby Allin video and the beginning of Allin vs. Kip Sabian. NXT lost 76,000 viewers and 21,000 in 18-49 for the ending of Breeze vs. Theory and Killian Dain vs. Tehuti Miles. In the third quarter, AEW lost 61,000 viewers and 24,000 in 18-49 for Allin vs. Sabian, a Jake Hager video and Hager vs. Chico Adams. NXT lost 26,000 viewers and 27,000 in 18-49 for Tony Nese vs. Cameron Grimes. In the fourth quarter, AEW lost 12,000 viewers and 18,000 in 18-49 for the Moxley/Hager brawl, a Moxley promo, Brodie Lee video and Lee vs. QT Marshall. NXT lost 20,000 viewers but stayed even in 18-49 for Io Shirai vs. Aliyah and the three-way angle with Keith Lee, Dominik Dijakovic and Damien Priest. It should be noted that the Moxley/Hager brawl itself topped 500,000 in 18-49 and was the high point of the show in the key demo. In the fifth quarter, AEW lost 26,000 viewers and 23,000 in 18-49 for several packages revolving around The Elite vs. Inner Circle, Nick Jackson being filmed training and Sammy Guevara’s entrance. NXT gained 51,000 viewers and 19,000 in 18-49 for the Adam Cole promo plus Oney Lorcan & Danny Burch vs. Shane Thorne & Brendan Vink. This was the closest quarter on the show, with AEW having a 763,000 to 679,000 edge overall although it was 411,000 to 256,000 in 18-49. In the sixth quarter, AEW gained 41,000 viewers and 20,000 in 18-49 for the beginning of Kenny Omega vs. Sammy Guevara. NXT lost 19,000 viewers and 17,000 in 18-49 for Candice LeRae vs. Kayden Carter. In the seventh quarter, AEW lost 19,000 viewers and 14,000 in 18-49 for the ending of Omega vs. Guevara. NXT gained 4,000 viewers and 27,000 in 18-49 for Matt Riddle vs. Roderick Strong. In the final quarter, which was Chris Jericho & Matt Hardy on AEW and HHH, Tommaso Ciampa and Johnny Gargano for NXT, it saw AEW gain 51,000 viewers and 50,000 in 18-49, and NXT lost 15,000 viewers and 16,000 in 18-49. The final quarter saw AEW at 836,000 viewers and 463,000 in 18-49 and NXT with 649,000 viewers and 247,000 in 18-49.

On the television front, and this is weird because of classification and kind of misleading because of Raw, but AEW’s first two shows after the world changed were the two highest rated sports shows of that period in the 18-49 demo. The key to that is that USA lists Raw (which would be first) and NXT (which wouldn’t rate anyway) as entertainment and not sports, which is why it’s never on sports listings. However TNT, ESPN and FOX list their wrestling as sports and not entertainment, but FOX is network and not cable. Smackdown has been the highest rated sports show overall. For the week ending 3/22, AEW was no. 1 on cable overall, beating NASCAR on FS 1 by 932,000 to 903,000 but in 18-49, AEW did 455,000 to 297,000 over NASCAR. WrestleMania 30 did 405,000 in 18-49 for second place for that week. But TNT was thrilled with the first two weeks numbers since 18-49 is the number they focus on and over 400,000 is a home run. There have been network shows including replays of old 30 for 30s on ABC, U.S. Figure Skating Championships on NBC and replays of old NCAA basketball finals on CBS that have drawn more viewers (but not higher ratings because of the difference in homes available),but AEW has beaten all those shows, even with the huge network advantage in 18-49. So among sports programming overall, Smackdown was No. 1 and AEW was No. 2 in the key demo, and No. 3 for the first week of world changing was the WrestleMania show and then the Figure Skating did 375,000 on NBC, which is in 30 million more homes (giving it a 35 percent advantage) while AEW has done 453,000 and 444,000 over its two weeks. For the week ending 3/29, Smackdown was No. 1 across the board in the sports listings on network. A NASCAR race in Texas on FS 1 was No. 1 overall in sports with 823,000 viewers, but it was 241,000 in 18-49 so AEW nearly doubled it in the key demo, even though at 816,000, it was No. 2 for the week. The 444,000 in 18-49 for AEW beat No. 2 WrestleMania 32 on ESPN at 326,000, which was ESPN’s highest rated event of the week

Tracy Smothers, 57, is finishing up a round of chemotherapy in his battle with Stage III Lymphoma which has also led to his losing 45 percent of his heart functioning. Kassius Ohno, who considers Smothers one of his mentors, set up a Go Fund Me for him