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Based on the Observer Newsletter, NXT's start and over-run ended up being the key reasons why they were able to beat AEW this week. If only the over-run was the strongest, NXT likely wouldn't have been able to beat AEW.
NXT's show started out higher than AEW, spiked with the Becky Lynch segment, and then went into a noticeable freefall until the final 30 minutes and over-run. AEW started out lower, was mostly steady in the 1st hour, spiked big by the time of Jericho's segment, had a noticeable fall afterwards, and then managed to rebound to around its starting level by the end of the show.
In terms of the 18-49 demo, NXT didn't beat AEW in any of the head-to-head quarters. The Becky segment was the closest NXT ever got to AEW's demo numbers.
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