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I'd definitely take the latter. The goal is to gain as long a long-term commitment as possible. Opt outs like Greinke, Arod or Sabathia had are more likely the norm.
Speaking on one year extravaganzas...I read a suggestion to offset teams holding down minor league talent for an extra year of service time. Instead, those who would otherwise qualify that end up being held down, like Kris Bryant, would use the extra year gained as a restricted free agent year. Other teams are given a chance on a one year bid to sign the player, and the original club has the right to match the offer or let the player go.
Not sure how compensation would work for the losing team but it's definitely far more interesting than "let's not increase our chances of winning to try and gain an extra year".
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