[Ol Dirty Dastard]

Originally Posted by Damian Rey That only works if you're a groundball pitcher, which Estrada is not. He's an arguably extreme fly ball pitcher with a declining strikeout rate and mediocre track record. Yes, he had a nice year, but it's a outlier. Prior to this season he was barely a replacement level player. That's far more telling than a fluke year on the wrong side of 30. He'd absolutely be a sentimental signing. Drebin is right, more than two years would be ludicrous. If he's available in January or February, the leverage falls into the team's lap. I'm hard pressed to think of a team that'd give up a pick to sign him when the current market is so deep. In terms of signing players via postseason heroics, the Giants are a prime example of why it doesn't work. They've handed out contracts to Angel Pagan, Aubrey Huff, Freddie Sanchez and Marco Scutaro after postseason heroics. Pagan is in steady decline going into his final guaranteed year, and had missed significant time over the last 3 years. They paid Freddie Sanchez $12 mil to play 60 games in 2011 and none in 2012. They then sunk 20 mil into Aubrey Huff in 2011 and 2012 and he returned the favor by being dramatically less productive in that two year span. Marco Scutaro was paid 20 million through this past season to play 132 games, 127 of which came in 2013. The Jays would be wise to steer clear from Estrada unless it becomes clear nobody's gonna sign him and they can lowball him on a deal closer to his actual value per production instead of paying for a career year.

I can't really argue with that logic. But deep inside I still will