TPWW Forums - View Single Post

**Damian Rey** · 08-22-2015, 05:43 PM

It's also insane, and honestly quite daft, in this day and age of advanced, far more informative statistics to think Cespedes is better than Heyward or that the latter shouldn't get a hefty if
not higher pay day than the other outfielders on the market based on counting numbers.

Heyward is about to clear his 4th 4 war season in 6 years, at 25 years old, in a walk year. He's also been consistently 2 wins or better above the average player sans one season throughout his career. And while he doesn't compile high homerun tallies, he's still an above average hitter for his career with room to grow, and is arguably the best defensive right fielder in the game. Maybe 7 years and 200 is a bit of an over statement, but 8 or even 9 years at that rate is not out of the realm of possibility. I think Heyward is the number one position player on the free agent market. Much more well rounded game than Upton and Cespedes, but still had prime years ahead of him.

Cespedes is good, but is, imo, largely overrated. His primary skill is hitting a ball over a fence. His power makes him an above average hitter for his career, but good career ops+ is only marginally higher than Heyward's, who's 4 years younger and while Cespedes is a good defensive left fielder, his defense is not as good as Heyward's. This is actually the only year where Cespedes is on a similar level with the glove. Over the course of their careers, Heyward blows Cespedes out of the water in the outfield. Cespedes is actually peaking far above his career numbers, and I'd wager it safe to say 2015 will likely be best overall season and he'll regress to his personal norm next year.

So, you have outfielders who are, at bat for at bat, about equal, with one being the far more elite defender and only age 26 in year one of his next deal, while the other is performing at a level he's reached only one other time at age 26 and will be age 30 in year one of his deal, an age where players typically begin to decline.

I'll give the money to the guy who is going give you 4 seasons before turning age 30.

08-22-2015, 05:43 PM	#3176
Damian Rey Posts: 3,755	It's also insane, and honestly quite daft, in this day and age of advanced, far more informative statistics to think Cespedes is better than Heyward or that the latter shouldn't get a hefty if not higher pay day than the other outfielders on the market based on counting numbers. Heyward is about to clear his 4th 4 war season in 6 years, at 25 years old, in a walk year. He's also been consistently 2 wins or better above the average player sans one season throughout his career. And while he doesn't compile high homerun tallies, he's still an above average hitter for his career with room to grow, and is arguably the best defensive right fielder in the game. Maybe 7 years and 200 is a bit of an over statement, but 8 or even 9 years at that rate is not out of the realm of possibility. I think Heyward is the number one position player on the free agent market. Much more well rounded game than Upton and Cespedes, but still had prime years ahead of him. Cespedes is good, but is, imo, largely overrated. His primary skill is hitting a ball over a fence. His power makes him an above average hitter for his career, but good career ops+ is only marginally higher than Heyward's, who's 4 years younger and while Cespedes is a good defensive left fielder, his defense is not as good as Heyward's. This is actually the only year where Cespedes is on a similar level with the glove. Over the course of their careers, Heyward blows Cespedes out of the water in the outfield. Cespedes is actually peaking far above his career numbers, and I'd wager it safe to say 2015 will likely be best overall season and he'll regress to his personal norm next year. So, you have outfielders who are, at bat for at bat, about equal, with one being the far more elite defender and only age 26 in year one of his next deal, while the other is performing at a level he's reached only one other time at age 26 and will be age 30 in year one of his deal, an age where players typically begin to decline. I'll give the money to the guy who is going give you 4 seasons before turning age 30.