1) Orton would win considering he was supposed to last year before the injury and the rumors of Orton/Sheamus possibly replacing Ziggler/Sheamus for Mania. Ziggler won't cash in until after Mania.
2) Cena doesn't win which everyone seems to believe he's going to win just so that Rock-Cena II is guaranteed. If he does then the WWE probably will just repeat having Cena using his spot for the Chamber and not Mania.